This project critically evaluates climate models to improve our confidence in projections of rainfall drivers, and predictions of extreme events like land-falling tropical cyclones under a future climate state. By enhancing our confidence in the modelling, Australia‘s climate-related decisions and risk management strategies will be informed by the best possible evidence.
Increasing confidence in modelling Australia’s future weather and climate hazards
Global and regional climate models are essential tools to predict climate hazards and extreme events, helping us understand how our world will change in a warming climate. Confidence in the reliability of modelled climate projections for Australia heavily depends on the models‘ capability to simulate Australia’s rainfall, temperature, and climate processes that affect extreme rainfall, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Under a warming climate, local factors and land surface changes could affect tropical cyclones and the rainfall they bring. This project takes the next step by closely examining climate model simulations to better understand key climate processes and extreme events.
By assessing past and future trends, the project will refine our understanding of how climate change may shape Australia’s climate. Through detailed case studies, researchers will evaluate climate models against observed events, providing clearer insights into whether current projections accurately reflect future conditions. These findings will support evidence-based policy decisions and improve risk management strategies.
Strengthening confidence in decision-making around future climate hazards through case studies
Another key focus is enhancing model evaluation to offer critical insights for climate risk assessors, including the Australian Climate Service (ACS). Improved projections will support governments, industries, and ecosystem managers in making informed decisions on climate risks.
The project’s findings will also contribute to better forecasting capabilities for climate models like ACCESS, offering more accurate predictions for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and other critical risks. This will help inform responses in areas such as water and ecological management, infrastructure planning, and emergency preparedness — equipping stakeholders with tools to mitigate the impacts of future extreme events.
Want to know more?
Please contact project leads, Pandora Hope and Surendra Rauniyar, Bureau of Meteorology.
Or email us at info@nesp2climate.com.au.