Extreme events explained

What made eastern Australia so wet from 2020 to 2022?

November 12, 2024

From 2020 to 2022, eastern Australia had much more rain than usual. In these years, three La Niña events occurred in a row, only the third occurrence of a triple La Niña since the 1950s. Under climate change, most models project a decline in winter-spring rainfall in southeastern Australia, and the influence of ENSO on rainfall is likely to strengthen. This would suggest increased drying during El Niño years but extreme La Niña-related rainfall may increase.

Extreme climate explained: the triple La Niña and extremely wet conditions 2020-2022

August 30, 2024

Australia experienced its second-wettest spring on record in 2022. Record-breaking rainfall and saturated soils across eastern parts of the country led to widespread flooding. Did climate change influence the triple La Niña and extremely wet conditions in 2020-2022? What’s the likelihood of similar events happening in the future?

Will extreme rainfall events become more intense in the future?

August 26, 2024

Will extreme rainfall events become more intense in the future? Climate scientists expect extreme rainfall events to become more intense as the world warms, increasing the risk to many Australian communities already affected by flash flooding. Our researcher are finding out more about the risks of extreme rainfall that we are likely to experience.

Processes and Principles for Producing Credible Climate Change Attribution Messages: Lessons from Australia and New Zealand

June 25, 2024

Extreme event attribution (EEA) information is increasingly in demand from climate services. EEA messages can: raise awareness about the effect climate change has already imposed,…

Strengthening climate change attribution for decision makers

April 22, 2024

The emerging field of extreme event attribution (EEA) allows scientists to establish the causes of extreme weather and the role of climate change in altering…

Understanding and strengthening climate change attribution

January 5, 2024

Attribution science allows us to understand the signal of climate change in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. As extreme events increasingly impact…

The Role of Internal Variability and External Forcing on Southwestern Australian Rainfall – Prospects for Very Wet or Dry Years

December 7, 2023

The cool-season (May to October) rainfall decline in southwestern Australia deepened during 2001–2020 to become 20.5% less than the 1901–1960 reference period average, with a…

The Southern Annular Mode and Large-Scale Circulations

December 6, 2023

Understanding large-scale linkages can provide insights into improving our seasonal forecasts and regional projections.   Being uniquely positioned, Australia’s climate is influenced by the Pacific, Indian…

Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change in the Australian Region – A Review

November 28, 2023

Extreme event attribution is a rapidly growing field of climate science with important implications for public and government understanding of human-induced climate change. However, there…

Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

October 18, 2023

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure…