Extratropical cyclones, low pressure systems, are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions outside the tropics, including in southern Australia. This research shows the decline in extratropical systems accounts for at least 80% of the projected decline in cool season rainfall in southern Australia. However, the frequency of extratropical cyclones with very heavy rainfall may increase, particularly in Tasmania and the southeast coast. The decrease in cyclone-related strong winds and increase in intense rainfall, combined with an underlying increase in sea level, also suggests flooding could contribute a relatively greater component of total damages from extratropical cyclones.
Read more: Pepler, A.S., & Dowdy, A.J. (2022). Australia’s future extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 35(23), 7795-7810. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0312.1