Climate and Agricultural Risk: Assessing the Impacts of Major Climate Drivers on Australian Cotton Production

Climate variability and extremes adversely impacts Australian cotton crop production and imposes a major constraint on farm planning, industry supply chains and resource allocation. This study reviews time-series yield and crop production methods to account for climate, as well as perform a cotton yield and climate time series analysis using rainfall and temperature data. This study demonstrates that dryland lint yield gains during average-to-moderate rain/temperature years while irrigated lint yields have improved during more frequent average rain/hot growing seasons (1997–2018). Results also discovered climate in central cotton growing areas is impacted by El Niño Modoki and Niño4 indices and the various phases of ENSO. These findings translate into meaningful actions for industry adaptation and in turn provide a valuable step in accounting for climate variability and yield related inputs such as fertiliser and water resources.