October 22, 2026
Developing a methodology for generating future weather files for building energy performance assessment
Current NatHERS weather files used for residential compliance assessments are based on historical observations, so they don’t capture future climate change or extreme heat. This technical report sets out the methodology behind the Hub’s Building for the Future prototype weather files. It combines hourly regional projections from the Bureau of Meteorology’s BARPA-R model with the existing NatHERS historical dataset, using Quantile Delta Change bias adjustment. The method produces future Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files and three eXtreme Meteorological Year (XMY) files per scenario, representing the most intense, longest and most severe heatwaves. The files cover 11 locations, two emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and three future periods (2030s, 2050s and 2070s).
The report covers selecting representative climate model grid cells, deriving NatHERS-compatible variables, quality-control checks and file generation. It also describes the characteristics of the resulting files and outlines limitations and future opportunities, including extending the work to other hazards such as extreme rainfall. The transparent, reproducible framework could be applied to more locations and updated as new projections become available. The files should be used as an ensemble of plausible future conditions, not as predictions of specific future weather or events.
