In January, global data synthesisers confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record. Copernicus reported an average surface temperature anomaly of 1.6°C – exceeding the 1.5°C ambition set under the Paris Agreement. As usual, there was plenty of media attention on the lack of action and continuing carbon emissions. The Australian summer provided plenty of extreme events to punctuate the warming trend, mirroring the emergence of more and more extremes globally.
Marine heatwaves off Western Australia, bushfires in protected and regional areas and heatwaves in our cities are all featured in summer media. The economic impact grows. Insurance analyses for 2024 report significant loss of life and billions of dollars of damages. As predicted, insurance failure is emerging in many regions worldwide, increasing the impact on disaster-affected communities.
While we manage the long-term climate risk through ambitions for energy transitions and decarbonisation, short-term risks are becoming a daily reality. Both long- and short- timescales must be considered when planning for climate actions or interventions.
Leaders and decision-makers can claim to be surprised by extreme events, but the development of forecast systems has driven back the veil of future uncertainty. In my work forecasting marine heatwaves and delivering that information to decision-makers, I have seen that with forecasts, decisions are made.
The hub works to collate underpinning data and investigate the drivers of extreme events in both models and observations on a range of future time scales. The recently concluded Climate-effective management for threatened species and protected places project developed conservation-targeted climate information using ‘situation reports’ or SitReps. We will continue to provide SitReps quarterly for dozens of regions across Australia to support integrated decision-making across time scales.
Even where a forecast is unavailable, we can provide information on climate interventions or adaptation options designed to minimise the impact of weather events or climate patterns that can’t be avoided. The hub’s recently launched AdaptLog tool for species and protected places brings together forecasts with examples of interventions along with guidance to help users think about adaptive actions.
In this newsletter, we highlight some of the engagement and outreach efforts that boosted awareness of these new hub products. Unique AdaptLog monthly website visitors increased from 400 to 1300 after the hub webinar, a feature in The Conversation and media interest.
It is the combination of research, real-world actions and communication that I hope positions Australia and the region to cope with the unavoidable impacts of climate change by overcoming excuses for inaction and inspiring confidence that local and regional actions can improve the well-being of our society and the environmental outcomes for our unique species and places.
Dr Alistair Hobday, Research Director & Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO
Read more in the latest e-newsletter.
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