Tipping the balance: What’s at stake for our climate future
Earth’s climate is approaching a moment not only of profound challenge, but of devastating consequence—climate tipping points that could reshape the planet for its inhabitants for millennia to come.
Scientists have warned us that multiple elements of the climate system are at risk of reaching a tipping point, ranging from the collapse of major ice sheets to the dieback of tropical coral reefs and vast forests.
At a local level, many decision-makers are contemplating whether and how to factor tipping points into their planning.
For adaptation, we can still make pragmatic recommendations. While responding to climate change risk is complex, the process can be broken down into testable components. Thinking about whether a tipping point scenario should be considered, we can ask questions like: What is the likelihood of a tipping point impacting a decision? What would the consequence be if one were triggered? What is the appetite for that risk? There is no clear answer, but there is a logic that can be followed.
What truly tests us, however, is trying to cut emissions fast enough to avoid triggering tipping points. A recent study from the University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute and Universität Hamburg estimates that an emissions scenario close to current policies (SSP2-4.5) is an ‘odds-on’ risk of triggering tipping points at 62%.
The good news is that, as a global society, we still have the power to avoid many of these tipping points with lower emissions. There is also evidence that Amazon forest dieback and thawing of the permafrost, although catastrophic in themselves, are unlikely to increase the risk of other tipping points occurring sooner.
What remains of great concern is how close Earth’s climate elements are to reaching a tipping point, with the possibility some may have already been crossed.
The need to rapidly reduce emissions is critically urgent. We have only decades to decide the planet’s long-term fate, yet global policies still fall short of what’s needed to avoid several potential tipping points.
I hope you will take some time to join next week’s Climate Systems Hub webinar exploring the science of climate tipping points and some of the challenges of maintaining trust when communicating about them.
Sarah Boulter
Climate Adaptation Initiative Lead
Read more in the latest e-newsletter.
For news, research, resources, publications and events from the Climate Systems Hub, sign up here.