August 7, 2026
El Niño and La Niña have an almost mythical status when it comes to Australia’s climate. Their potential arrival is heralded in news reports as a turn to either a drier Australia or a wetter Australia.
This could be all you need to know to give you an idea about what could be down the track, but if you needed more detail to help you plan for the coming months rain, it’s important to really know the extent of the impact that El Niño or La Niña can have on Australia’s rainfall. Because although El Niño and La Niña are known to be ‘climate drivers’, as we’ll show by their impact on rainfall probabilities, a term more aligned with the times, like ‘climate influencer’ could be more apt.
Whenever making a decision based on seasonal forecasting, the first port of call should be the Bureau of Meteorology. Their forecasts are based on models using physical equations and the latest observations and contain more information about what can impact Australian rainfall than just whether there’s an El Niño and La Niña. These forecasts can change with updated observations as you get closer to the month your care about, so remember to keep checking the most recent forecast if that information matters to you.
