Rainfall in northern Australia can change a lot, varying from month to month, year to year, and even decade to decade. This factsheet explains the key factors behind rainfall variability and how it impacts local communities, industries, and the environment.
In spring and early summer, rainfall is mostly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local sea surface temperatures. These factors shape the region’s climate and affect agriculture and land management. But when the summer monsoon hits, especially in the northwest, the oceanic wind-evaporation feedback becomes the main driver, greatly affecting rainfall patterns.
Even with these insights, predicting future monsoon rainfall remains challenging. Climate models disagree on whether northern Australia will get wetter or drier in the coming years. Researchers are sharing their findings with local decision-makers, including farmers and pastoralists, who are concerned about drought and heat stress on livestock. Understanding how climate drivers influence rainfall variability is crucial for helping these communities make better decisions and prepare for a changing climate.
For more detailed information, refer to the full fact sheet below or read What drives interannual rainfall variability over northern Australia?