October 20, 2025
This study looks at how human activities, especially those that affect the Earth’s energy balance, like greenhouse gas emissions, are expected to change rainfall patterns in the future. These changes will have big impacts on ecosystems, farming, water supplies, economies, and people’s lives.
To understand and prepare for these changes, scientists often use climate models to estimate how rainfall might shift. A common method is to calculate the average percentage change in rainfall across many models. However, this study shows that this method can give misleading results, even when using a large number of models. The problem is especially noticeable in dry regions and when human-caused climate change leads to more rainfall. The error is also worse when the reference period used for comparison is short. For example, in tropical regions during summer (December to February), the average error in this method is about 5.7%, and in some areas, it’s much higher.
The researchers suggest better ways to measure rainfall changes that could give more accurate results and help communities plan for the future more effectively.
Read more > Scott B. Power, C. T. Y. Chung & G. Boschat DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01135-4
