Uncovering the uncharted climate trajectories that could shape our future, equipping stakeholders with crucial information for managing climate risk.
Charting high-impact, lower-certainty climate scenarios
Conventional climate change projections are crucial tools for assessing future climate risks. However, these projections capture a limited range of possible climate futures. Many other plausible scenarios of unknown likelihood, such as greenhouse gas overshoot and stabilisation scenarios, and patterns of sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific, are often not found in these datasets. This project aims to fill some of these critical gaps, offering a more comprehensive view of climate futures. By examining these “uncharted” futures, the research will allow risk managers a greater understanding of what could unfold under a broader range of climate conditions. This will allow them to start to consider what decisions and planning might address the level of risk identified.
Turning uncharted climate futures into actionable insights
To tackle these gaps, the project will apply innovative research methods and expert judgment, co-designing new approaches. The research will explore plausible but currently unaccounted-for scenarios, such as extreme climate trajectories and pattern changes. Research results will be turned into reports, briefings, and visual representations to help build a broader understanding of the risk management space of those previously uncharted scenarios. The project will collaborate closely with key stakeholders, including the Australian Climate Service, to ensure findings are translated into accessible, actionable information. By filling these gaps, the project aims to equip decision-makers with the tools necessary to make informed choices, ensuring that climate adaptation strategies are robust across a full spectrum of possible futures.
Want to know more?
Please contact the project lead, Sugata Narsey, Bureau of Meteorology.
Or email us at info@nesp2climate.com.au.