What climate models miss about Pacific Ocean changes and why it matters for Australia

May 6, 2026

As our planet warms, the Pacific Ocean will change significantly, but exactly how remains an active area of research. Both models and observations agree that global temperatures are rising in response to increasing greenhouse gases. However, this warming does not occur uniformly in space. And the pattern of change has important implications for Australia’s climate.

While the ocean continues to oscillate between the two phases of El Niño and La Niña, the background warming pattern of the Pacific Ocean since the 1980s has resembled a La Niña-like state, with relatively warmer ocean conditions closer to Australia and stronger trade winds, which blow east to west. However, most global climate models simulate a Pacific Ocean warming pattern that looks more El Niño-like instead, in contrast to the changes observed in the real world.

When models and observations differ, it can mean the climate system is showing us something we need to understand better, which is why Hub researchers are closely examining whether Pacific processes may be missing or misrepresented in climate models.