April 23, 2026
Access to high resolution climate data across Australia has transformed how we understand the risks ahead. Yet as researchers work with increasing levels of detail in the data, they’re discovering important knowledge gaps; signals that suggest our current projections may not be capturing the full spectrum of possible futures. Understanding other plausible futures matters.
Preparing Australia for climate risk means looking beyond the conventional outlooks and asking: what might we be missing? In this April webinar, Hub researchers unpacked where uncertainties remain, and why a range of possible futures should be considered. Participants heard how scientists are exploring climate futures outside the currently modelled range, and how this work is helping decision-makers think more broadly and plan more robustly.
For more information about our speakers >
Further reading
For Andrew King’s net zero blog >
Chamberlain, M.A., Ziehn, T. and Law, R.M. (2024) ‘The Southern Ocean as the climate’s freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero‑emission scenarios with ACCESS‑ESM1.5’, Biogeosciences, 21, pp. 3053–3073. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024
Chung, C.T.Y., Power, S.B., Boschat, G., Gillett, Z.E. and Narsey, S. (2024) ‘Projected changes to characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode events in the CMIP6 models’, Earth’s Future, 12, e2024EF005166. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005166
Chung, C.T.Y., Power, S.B., Boschat, G., Gillett, Z., Narsey, S., Pepler, A. and Taschetto, A.S. (2025) ‘Springtime rainfall changes in Australia related to projected changes in large‑scale modes of variability’, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 75, ES25030. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES25030
Hobeichi, S., Abramowitz, G., Sen Gupta, A., Taschetto, A.S., Richardson, D., Rampal, N., Ayat, H., Alexander, L.V. and Pitman, A.J. (2024) ‘How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?’, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 295. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00853-5
King, A.D., Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Borowiak, A.R., Brown, J.R., Cassidy, L., Dittus, A.J., Grose, M., Maher, N., Paik, S., Perkins‑Kirkpatrick, S.E. and Sengupta, A. (2024) ‘Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS‑ESM‑1.5’, Earth System Dynamics, 15, pp. 1353–1383. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024
King, A.D., Jones, C.D., Ziehn, T., Perkins‑Kirkpatrick, S.E., Hirsch, A.L. and Cassidy, L. (2025) ‘Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions’, Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 526. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02472-1
Li, H., Taschetto, A.S., Chung, C.T.Y. and Boschat, G. (2026) ‘Australian rainfall projections associated with ENSO diversity in a warming climate: insights from CMIP6 large ensembles’, Journal of Climate, 39, pp. 1251–1264. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0218.1
McGregor, S., Ong, E.Q.Y. and Planton, Y.Y. (2026) ‘Understanding CMIP6 multi‑model ensemble projected Pacific warming pattern variability’, Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2025GL118815. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118815
Van Vuuren, D.P., O’Neill, B.C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B.M., Chini, L.P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C.M.N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M.J., Gohar, L.K., Högner, A., Jones, A.D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L.F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S.K., Ruane, A.C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A.A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S.S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M. and Ziehn, T. (2026) ‘The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP‑CMIP7)’, Geoscientific Model Development, 19(7), pp. 2627–2656. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026
