December 4, 2025
The rapid pace of climate change is observed in many aspects of the Earth system. This includes local warming and rainfall changes, increases in some extremes, and decreasing ice in polar regions. Observable climate change effects have been part of the motivation for the Paris Agreement and the push to achieve net-zero emissions. A growing understanding suggests that we should expect some aspects of the climate to continue changing under net zero. Though there are benefits to getting to net zero sooner, it’s still unclear whether these changes will be obvious or masked by noise in the climate.
Here, we use simulations to examine how apparent climate changes may be under net zero and the effects of delays in achieving net zero. We find that over time, detectable changes in the climate system still occur under net zero. Many people live in places where detectable local climate changes occur under net zero emissions. Delays in getting to net zero have identifiable effects across many aspects of the climate system.
Achieving net zero should not be expected to halt all climate change, but it is a necessary step in reducing climate change impacts.
