December 4, 2025
The rapid pace of climate change is observed in many aspects of the Earth system including local warming and rainfall changes, increases in some extremes, and decreasing ice in polar regions. These observable climate change effects have been part of the motivation for the Paris Agreement and the push to achieve net zero emissions. There is a growing understanding that we should expect some aspects of the climate to continue changing under net zero and that there are benefits to getting to net zero sooner, but it has been unclear to date whether these changes will be obvious or masked by noise in the climate.
Here we use simulations to examine how apparent climate changes may be under net zero and the effects of delays in achieving net zero. We find that over time, detectable changes in the climate system still occur under net zero. Many people live in places where we identify detectable local climate changes under net zero emissions. Delays in getting to net zero have identifiable effects across many aspects of the climate system.
Achieving net zero should not be expected to halt all climate changes, but it is a necessary step in reducing climate change impacts.
