As our climate warms, marine heatwaves are becoming more intense and longer lasting. This can have detrimental consequences for ecosystems and industry alike. However, before we can confidently understand change and potential impacts, reliable baseline marine heatwave hazard information is required at scales relevant to environmental managers in the nearshore regions. This project will work to provide marine heatwave hazard maps around southeastern Tasmania to help marine managers make informed planning decisions.
Understanding the marine heatwave hazard in the coastal zone
Marine heatwaves can disrupt species’ life cycles, alter habitat conditions, and threaten marine biodiversity. While the science around marine heatwaves is becoming well developed for open ocean regions where climate drivers are better understood, in coastal regions —where important habitats for species are located, as well as fisheries and aquaculture operations are concentrated—our knowledge is much less developed. Specifically, in the coastal and nearshore zones, adequately observing or modelling marine heatwaves is more challenging, as the important processes are very complex.
This project focuses on the waters around southeastern Tasmania, an ecologically and economically important region experiencing multi-decadal ocean warming at 2-3 times the global average rate. Researchers will use available observations and high-resolution models to provide critically needed marine heatwave hazard baseline information. They will also analyse the movement and survival of key species, such as Eastern Rock Lobster and Long-spined Sea Urchins using particle tracking methods. By integrating multiple data sources, the project will improve understanding of how offshore marine heatwaves can influence the coastal zone and estuaries.
Supporting adaptation and decision making
This research will provide essential guidance for fisheries, aquaculture, and environmental management. For fisheries, the project will identify key retention areas for lobster and sea urchin larvae and assess how marine heatwaves influence their spread. For aquaculture, it will improve awareness to aid planning.
The project will map the marine heatwave hazard. By delivering baseline hazard assessments, this work will equip industries and coastal managers with the knowledge needed to interpret local and large-scale background environmental conditions so that marine ecosystem and operations decision-makers are well informed when developing risk profiles for habitats, species or businesses.
Want to know more?
Please contact the project lead, Neil Holbrook, University of Tasmania.
Or email us at info@nesp2climate.com.au.